Working Papers

Abstract

This paper examines whether mandatory disclosure of Automated License Plate Reader (ALPR) usage influences crime and arrests in the U.S.A. Focusing on Vermont’s unique 2013 disclosure law, which requires law enforcement agencies to reveal their use of ALPRs, I employ a Two-Way Fixed Effects model within a difference-in-differences framework to assess the law’s impact on total violent crime, property crime, and arrests over the period 2008–2017. Vermont agencies serve as the treated group, while agencies from outside Vermont without disclosure laws form the control group. The results reveal that the law significantly reduced total property crime by approximately 5.09 offenses per 1,000 — representing a 21% decline relative to pre-law averages — while no robust effects were observed for violent crime or arrests. Secondary analyses indicate that only agencies that disclosed ALPR usage experienced significant reductions in property crime, suggesting a deterrence effect driven by public awareness of surveillance. Sensitivity tests — including tests on parallel trends, alternative model specifications, and others — confirm the robustness of the property crime findings. These findings imply that mandatory disclosure may enhance deterrence by increasing offenders’ perceived risk of apprehension without compromising law enforcement effectiveness. Moreover, the evidence suggests that law enforcement agencies might face institutional or strategic barriers that discourage voluntary transparency, even when greater disclosure could benefit both public trust and crime prevention. This study contributes to the literature on crime deterrence and provides important policy insights for balancing privacy rights with public safety needs. 

Presented at: 7th Internal PhD Workshop in Economics and Management (2024), UNIBZ-UNIVR Joint Research Seminars (May, 2024), Bolzano Applied Microeconomics Workshop (March, 2024), others. 

Progress: Reviewed by supervisors, other professors (including external), and peers. Revised based on recommendations. Resubmitted to supervisors for approval to commence publication process. 

Target Journals:  The Economic Journal, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Journal of Criminology and Public Policy, Journal of Economic Criminology.

Download from: Job Market Paper _ Muhammed Lamin Ceesay

Abstract

This paper seeks to answer the questions: “does the data retention limit of ALPR systems matter in crime reduction?”, “will prohibiting private usage of the devices hinder crime fighting efforts?” and “what combination of these two factors is desirable in finding a balance between crime reduction and privacy protection?”. To answer these questions I identified 10 states which passed laws regulating ALPRs within the study period 2008-2020. I grouped them based on how they address two important issues: data retention limits and private usage. I tested the effect of different combinations of these two factors on crime and arrest outcomes, using states which did not have laws regulating ALPRs as my control group. I used the Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) approach in a panel data setup as my main testing strategy. I found that banning private usage significantly reduced the number of arrests but allowing private usage led to a significant increase in arrests. Having a retention limit did not have an impact on outcomes, but if the limit is as low as 90 days it could lead to significant reductions in number of arrests. I also found that allowing private usage combined with not imposing a retention limit has a deterrent effect on crime. 

Presented at: Crime Before Christmas Workshop at University of Bocconi (Dec, 2024)

Progress: Under revision after review by supervisors, other professors, and peers.

Target Journals: The Economic Journal, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Journal of Criminology and Public Policy, Journal of Economic Criminology.